Assessment of Dry Microburst Index over India derived from INSAT-3DR satellite

Abstract

Dry microbursts can generate severe meteorological conditions including turbulence and strong winds even in the absence of precipitation. Present study evaluate the performance of Indian geostationary satellite, INSAT-3DR in capturing Dry Microburst Index (DMI) and validated against the radiosonde dataset. Data is validated across 14 selected stations across the India for 3 year (2020–2022). However, radiosonde data is very limited but spatial and temporal resolution of INSAT-3DR is good to analyse and predict the atmospheric phenomena. Different statistics have been used to validate INSAT-3DR against radiosonde observation. A Taylor plot confirm strong correlation and low RMSE between INSAT-3DR and radiosonde data. Spatial distribution depicts annual mean DMI values, it is influence by diurnal variation, regional weather pattern, and seasonal factors. Seasonal analysis indicates lower DMI during winter (5–45) due to reduced instability and moisture, while post-monsoon season witness increased DMI owing to warmer, humid conditions. The pre-monsoon season shows rising DMI as temperature increase. Study also analyses the co-occurrence of thunderstorm during DMI events, revealing a Probability of Detection (POD) of 0.75 for the INSAT-3DR DMI product, indicating 75% correct identification of thunderstorms. However, the False Alarm Rate (FAR) suggest false alarms occurred in approximately 55.2% of cases. Overall, study underscores the importance of considering local factors and conditions in interpreting INSAT-3DR satellite-based DMI data. Understanding and accurately predicting dry microbursts are crucial for enhancing aviation safety and improving the resilience of infrastructure in regions prone to these phenomena.