Abstract
The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, Upper Western Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.
Highlights
Climate change impacts, driven by temperature rises and shifts in precipitation patterns, could lead to changes in flood or drought frequency, water availability, and seasonality of water discharge [1,2,3]
To avoid the risks and damages associated with such impacts, adaptation strategies in regional water resource management have to be developed to ensure the readiness of the water-dependent sectors to meet the future challenges
The results showed an increase in the semi-arid area in South Ukraine, a decrease in soil moisture in West Ukraine, and in drainage areas of the left-bank tributaries of the upper Dnipro by 2050, according to the A1B scenario: according to the A2 scenario, water resources would increase in North Ukraine up to 80%, and up to 20% in the central part of the country, accompanied by 20%–30% decreases in the west and up to 60% in the south by 2050 [9]
Summary
Driven by temperature rises and shifts in precipitation patterns, could lead to changes in flood or drought frequency, water availability, and seasonality of water discharge [1,2,3]. Such changes may have adverse effects on agricultural, energy, transport, and social sectors, dependent on water resources. To avoid the risks and damages associated with such impacts, adaptation strategies in regional water resource management have to be developed to ensure the readiness of the water-dependent sectors to meet the future challenges. There is a growing body of knowledge and understanding of the nature and scale of potential future climate change impacts.
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