Discharge Alterations of the Mures River, Romania under Ensembles of Future Climate Projections and Sequential Threats to Aquatic Ecosystem by the End of the Century

Anastasia Lobanova,Tobias Vetter,Judith Stagl,Fred Hattermann

doi:10.3390/w7062753

Anastasia Lobanova, Tobias Vetter + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/w7062753

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Journal: Water	Publication Date: Jun 9, 2015
Citations: 30	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Abstract

This study aims to assess the potential alterations in the hydrological regime attributed to projected climate change in one of the largest rivers in the Carpathian Area, the Mures River, and to estimate associated threats to riverine ecosystem. The eco-hydrological model, Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), was applied on the Mures River basin, calibrated and validated against records at a gauging station in Alba-Julia town. A set of nine future projections for climatic parameters under one emissions scenario A1B over the period 1971–2100 were fed into the SWIM model. To provide functional link between hydrological regimes and riverine ecosystems, each of the nine simulated discharge time series were introduced into the IHA (Indicators of Hydrological Alterations) tool. Triggered changes in hydrological patterns of the Mures River were assessed at the basin and sub-basin scales. The obtained results present a strong agreement through all nine climate projections; suggesting an increase in the discharge of Mures River for the winter season; a decrease in summer and prolongation of the low flow periods by the end of the century. Anticipated changes would pose threats to aquatic ecosystems; altering normal life-cycles; and depleting natural habitats of species.

Highlights

The state, functionality and health of the aquatic ecosystems are heavily dependent on the hydrological regimes in a river basin, and their seasonal variability is of great importance for the normal life-cycle of the local species [1]
Even minor climate changes may trigger a drastic alteration in the hydrological cycles, and these risks should be accounted for in an adaptation strategy [43]
Uncertainties associated with the processes incorporated in the climate change modeling and coupling with hydrological models should be understood and have to be taken into account when interpreting results of modeling and creating adaptation strategies for river basins

Summary

Introduction

The state, functionality and health of the aquatic ecosystems are heavily dependent on the hydrological regimes in a river basin, and their seasonal variability is of great importance for the normal life-cycle of the local species [1]. As Poff and Ward [1] suggest, the modifications and shifts in hydrological regimes alone, apart from other relevant biological factors, like water temperature, oxygen levels or reach morphology, can have destructive impacts on the health of the aquatic ecosystems. All regions of Europe are expected to experience mainly negative impacts of climate change, their vulnerability as well as their adaptation capacity to such impacts strongly depend on their economical state [4]. The enhancement of the basin related scientific research and development was proposed by the European Commission Report [5], following various EU (European Union) directives involving the water resources management and global change, e.g., the EU Water Framework

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