Abstract
GFLD-CM3 model was used to generate weather data under RCPs scenario i.e. RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 for years 2010, 2035, 2065 and 2095 for Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh. The generated data were used to assess the impact of climate change on phenology and yield of wheat crop using CERES-Wheat model. The results revealed that the impact climate change hastened reproductive stages (anthesis, maturity) and decreased yield in all scenarios. The impact was highest under RCP 8.5. Days to antheis and days to maturity were projected to reduce by 22 days and 24 days, respectively in 2095 whereas, grain yield decreased by 61.0 per cent.
Highlights
Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the second most important food grain crop of India.In Uttar Pradesh, it ranks first in respect of crop coverage area of 9.67 million ha with production of 33.66 million tons with an average productivity of is 3.41 tons ha-1(Anon,2013-14; Singh et al 2014)
MarkSimDSSAT Weather File Generator, a software that downscales and generates daily weather from general circulation models is used to overcome the coarse resolution of general circulation models (Jones and Thornton, 2013)
The CERES-wheat model embedded in DSSATv4.6 (Hoogenboom et al, 2015) was used to assess climate change impact on yields of wheat crop of Varanasi district of Uttar Pradesh state, India
Summary
Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the second most important food grain crop of India.In Uttar Pradesh, it ranks first in respect of crop coverage area of 9.67 million ha with production of 33.66 million tons with an average productivity of is 3.41 tons ha-1(Anon,2013-14; Singh et al 2014). The generated dailyweather data characteristic of future climate scenarios was used to drive the CERES-wheat model.
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