Assessing the Threat of North Korea's Nuclear Capability

Abstract

Abstract North Korea's nuclear capability poses a significant threat to South Korea's security and to international peace. The nuclear capability of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has four components: (1) fissile materials; (2) design/manufacture/high-explosive testing; (3) nuclear tests; and (4) miniaturization. This capability can be transformed into a credible nuclear threat. Pyongyang's multiple nuclear devices are already deliverable, while dirty bombs employing radioactive materials also pose significant security risks. Increased inter-Korean exchanges risk unintended consequences as expanded transportation routes may be exploited by Pyongyang as corridors for the clandestine introduction of nuclear devices and dirty bombs into Seoul. Furthermore, South Korea may become an unwitting intermediary for North Korean WMD proliferation. The significance of the DPRK nuclear threat must be viewed from the international perspective of eliminating similar threats. North Korea's obvious nuclear capability is compelling evidence that the country has successfully developed nuclear weapons by persistently violating all major international agreements and deceiving the international community. It is a critical security threat to South Korea, so it should be prepared for the worst-possible scenario. In view of the serious challenges posed by nuclear-armed North Korea, South Korea must develop appropriate strategies and policy measures to counter the threat. A new strategic paradigm would integrate coercion and inducement based on the principle of reciprocity; namely, to use carrots and sticks concurrently. Under this overarching paradigm, a set of measures must be taken to counter the nuclear threat posed by North Korea.