Assessing the Paradox of Autonomous Vehicles: Promised Fuel Efficiency vs. Aggregate Fuel Consumption

Abstract

As autonomous vehicles (AVs) continue to evolve and approach widespread adoption in the near future, the touted benefits of improved fuel efficiency at an individual level come under scrutiny when considering the overall impact on fuel consumption. This research delves into the paradoxical relationship between the promising technology of AVs, their impact on traffic capacities, travel demand, and the subsequent influence on aggregate fuel consumption. While AVs have demonstrated enhanced fuel efficiency when considered as a singular mode of transportation, our study reveals a contrasting trend when scaled to a broader societal context. Through comprehensive analysis of the literature, we discovered that, at lower limits of energy savings achievable by a single AV, the overall fuel consumption increases by a staggering 42% compared to conventional human-driven vehicles. This counterintuitive outcome is a result of the aggregate effect of increased AV usage, leading to higher traffic volumes and travel demands. Conversely, at higher thresholds of energy savings by individual AVs, the percentage of fuel consumption increment diminishes, but remains notable. Even with advanced energy-saving features, the overall fuel quantity still experiences a substantial 30% increase compared to conventional vehicles when scaled up to widespread AV use. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering the holistic impact of AVs on transportation systems and energy consumption. As society transitions towards AV-dominated traffic, policymakers and stakeholders must address the challenges associated with increased travel demand, potential traffic congestion, and the resultant implications on fuel consumption.