Too Far? Autonomous vehicles, travel demand, and carbon dioxide emissions in Sweden

Abstract

This article envisions that by the middle of this century fully self-driving Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are available for private use. By considering how AVs can affect the utility of being in the vehicle, and accounting for the utility of being able to transport oneself to and from various locations, we derive the consumer surplus of having an AV and evaluate that against the cost of adopting the technology. This break-even calculation is used to evaluate AV purchase and consequent impacts on increase in travel demand and lifecycle CO2 emissions for different income groups for different assumptions concerning the Value of Travel Time, transport demand elasticity, AV technology costs, interest rates, and the possibility to work in the car or not. The modelled results show that all income groups purchase AV given low technology cost, and the highest income groups purchase AV under most conditions. Changes in demand elasticity and the value of travel time have the largest effect on vehicle miles traveled, which could be as much as 50 additional kilometers daily per driver. Even in a scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, this implies an annual carbon footprint of 0.42 – 0.86 metric tons of CO2 per driver from personal car travel in Sweden.