Assessing the influences of natural and human factors upon desertification vulnerability in northern China during 1985–2010

Abstract

As desertification is a major ecological and environmental problem affecting global sustainable development, it is imperative to assess the vulnerability of desertified land systems in order to formulate desertification control policies and improve livelihoods in arid lands. Using the vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) and Geodetector method, we explored trends in desertification vulnerability by considering the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability of the sandy region of northern China from 1985 to 2010, and identified the influencing mechanisms in terms of natural and human factors. According to the results, desertification vulnerability was higher in the central and western regions and lower in the eastern regions, and decreased significantly in most areas from 1985 to 2010. This could mainly be attributed to their reduced sensitivity, while the contributions of exposure and adaptability were relatively small in comparison to sensitivity. The spatial and temporal variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were the primary drivers of significant changes in desertification vulnerability in most areas, while the Net Primary Productivity (NPP), percentage of unused land, and grazing density were deemed secondary principal factors. Interactions between factors can reinforce the explanatory power of individual factors for changes in vulnerability, especially for wind erosion and GDP. The findings of this study could inspire governors to implement integrated measures to mitigate vulnerability and control desertification, including the restoration of vegetation on degraded land and enhancing the adaptability of the sandy region from both economical and ecological perspectives.