Mapping and assessment of carbon sequestration potential and its drivers in the Eastern Himalayan Region (India)

Abstract

Eastern Himalayan Region (EHR) is a biodiversity hotspot and an ecologically sensitive area. In the last few years, climate change, land use, and land cover (LULC) have substantially affected forest ecosystems and their capacity to store carbon. Therefore, understanding the impacts of these drivers of change on carbon sequestration (CS) is essential. This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal pattern of carbon sequestration in EHR between 2000 and 2020 using net primary production (NPP) as a proxy. NPP was extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The impact of natural and human factors on the NPP distribution were also assessed using regression analysis. The results showed that the areas with good NPP (relatively high ecosystem productivity) increased by 12% from 2000 to 2020. Conversely, the areas with poor NPP (relatively low ecosystem productivity) decreased from 39.92% (2000) to 34.42% (2020). The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased in the last 20 years (15% from 2000 to 2020). Land surface temperature (LST) increased pre-monsoon and decreased post-monsoon (winter). The correlation analysis showed that urban population growth (r = −0.464) and LST (r = −0.393) negatively impacted NPP. On the other hand, NDVI (r = 0.857), vegetation cover (VC) (r = 0.679), and human development index (HDI) (r = 0.741) had a positive correlation with NPP. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models showed that human (urbanisation and total population growth) and natural (such as VC) factors significantly impacted NPP. The total population growth had a weak positive relationship with NPP (r = 0.143). NPP increase can be attributed to effective management strategies (e.g., restoration).