Assessing the influence of meteorological parameters on sea ice area and thickness variability in the Kara Sea

Abstract

The reduction of the sea ice area in the Arctic is one of the most notable consequences of climate change, with the Kara Sea contributing about 5 % to the overall reduction. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of changes in climatic conditions on the reduction of the area and thickness of the sea ice in the Kara Sea and the possibility of using the established dependencies for climate forecasting. The article provides quantitative estimates of the relationship between interannual changes in the sea ice thickness and sea ice extent in the Kara Sea and climate changes in the region and the remote influence of the sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic for 1979–2019. The paper uses observation data obtained at meteorological stations, ERA5 reanalysis and data on the sea ice extent from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute website. In summer, the melting of sea ice is largely due to changes in the surface air temperature (correlation coefficient from –0.57 to –0.91). In winter, the ice thickness depends on the sum of frost degree-days (r = –0.80). The temperature regime, in turn, is determined by the radiation balance, namely, by the variability in the long-wave flow due to the increase in the water vapor content. On the basis of the relationships established, a linear regression model is proposed for forecasting the sea ice area with a lead time of about three months. The model is effective and statistically significant. The paper considers the remote influence of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic tropics on the ice coverage of the Kara Sea. The response of the sea ice extent to the sea surface temperature in the low latitudes is 30–34 months late. The significant correlation between the anomalies can serve as a basis for predicting the sea ice area in the Kara Sea with a lead time of up to three years.