Abstract
Assessing future challenges in water resources management is crucial to the Melka Kuntrie (MK) subbasin suffering water shortage. Impact assessments are evaluated by the HBV hydrological model with six scenarios, including two GCMs of AR4-A2 and two GCMs of AR5-RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for the time periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Evapotranspiration is expected to increase under all scenarios—due to rising temperature—and induce more water stress on rainfed agriculture of the area. However, the increase in the monthly minimum temperature is beneficial to crops against chilling damages. Five out of six projections show significant increases of rainfall and streamflow in both annual and major rainy seasons, except ECHAM-A2. Annual rainfall (streamflow) is expected to increase by 38% (23%) and 57% (49%) during 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, respectively, under RCP8.5 scenarios. Greater flashflood risk is a concern because of the projected increase in streamflow. The projection of decreased streamflow with ECHAM-A2 will exacerbate the existing water shortage, especially in the minor rainy season. Water harvesting during the major rainy season would be vital to enhance water management capacities and reduce flashflood risks. Lacking sufficient hydraulic and irrigation infrastructures, the MK subbasin will be more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Highlights
The agricultural sectors mostly reliant on seasonal rainfalls are very vulnerable to climate change [1,2,3,4]
The main objective of this study is to assess the expected changes in streamflow of the Melka Kuntrie (MK) subbasin simulated by Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model under six climate change scenarios
Where Vbc is the resulting bias-corrected variable, VGCMs is the variable projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), V WFD is the corresponding variable of the WFD, and V GCMs is the long-term monthly mean of the variable
Summary
The agricultural sectors mostly reliant on seasonal rainfalls are very vulnerable to climate change [1,2,3,4]. There were only a few climate change impact studies conducted for the upper Awash river basin, even more less for the MK subbasin. For better planning of adaption measures for the future, it is crucial to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the MK subbasin. The main objective of this study is to assess the expected changes in streamflow of the MK subbasin simulated by Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model under six climate change scenarios. It is necessary to carry out this kind of study in a regular manner to understand the It will help improving water practice, andwater the planning of adaptation impact of climate change on management water resources. Policy making and the planning of adaptation measures in the MK subbasin
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