Areas for the connectivity of Chaco peccary (Catagonus wagneri) populations at the southern limit of their distribution in the Argentine Chaco / Áreas para a conectividade de populações de pecari do Chaco (Catagonus wagneri) no limite sul de sua distribuição no Chaco Argentino

Abstract

The area of geographical distribution of mammal populations in the Argentine Chaco ecoregion is being increasingly reduced and this is mainly due to the progressive destruction of habitats. In this context, several species have been affected, among which is the endemic Catagonus wagneri (Tayassuidae), currently classified as "endangered" and with a trend of population decline. In this work, the predictions estimated by three algorithms were compared to establish the potential geographic distribution of this species at the southern limit of its natural distribution. Priority locations for landscape connectivity were identified by comparing intrinsic variations in the PC index based on data classification methods. With the use of foot transects, trap cameras and surveys with the local population, the presence of chacoan peccary was recorded on 25 occasions. From the GLM, Random Forest and Maxent algorithms (mean AUC 0.74), a reference model was obtained. Using it as an input and the PC index, the variation in the importance of the connectivity surfaces of the landscape was evaluated using three classification methods: quantile, equal interval and natural breaks. The consensus model (SDM) occupies 55,674 km2 of Argentina, representing 10% of the Chaco Seco ecoregion. The distribution occupies not only forest ecosystems, but also environments with less tree coverage. Coefficients of variation of 170% were recorded between the classification methods for the number of patches of classes 9 and 10 of the priority habitat for landscape connectivity. The SDM shows a fragmented distribution in line with the Chaco's land use change process.The results suggest a great variability of the PC index depending on the method of classifying data in class intervals, an aspect that was not discussed in previous studies.