Are we losing water storage capacity mostly due to climate change – Analysis of the landscape hydric potential in selected catchments in East-Central Europe

Abstract

Are we losing water mostly due to climate change? This study delves into that question. The main innovation of this research lies in developing a methodology that forecasts future shifts in water resources through the use of nondimensional indicators, such as Landscape Hydric Potential (LHP), caused by climate change scenarios, land use and land cover (LULC) projections, and a combination of both factors. The LHP method draws upon a range of indicators that shape the geosphere at the catchment scale, namely: hydrogeological conditions, soil conditions, climatic conditions, geomorphological conditions, and LULC. The analysis was carried out for 33 catchments located in the Upper Vistula River Basin in East-Central Europe. The study was conducted in the following stages. First, LHP values were calculated for the present conditions. Subsequently, an analysis of anticipated changes in LULC and in climate were conducted for the near and far future. Lastly, simulations were performed to project how LHP might evolve, considering potential changes in climate and LULC over time. The results have shown that under current climatic conditions, mountainous catchments are characterized by higher LHP values than catchments located in highlands or plains. Agricultural areas are projected to experience the largest changes in LULC. Climatic water balance indicate minimal changes, irrespective of time horizon. Our studies conclude that changes in predicted LULC could have a more significant impact on LHP values than the projected climate change.