Archaeological Predictive Model – Manning Diversified Forest Products Ltd., P15 Forest Management Unit

Abstract

This document describes an archaeological predictive model prepared for Manning Diversified Forest Products Ltd. (MDFP) of Alberta. The model refers to the P15 Forest Management Unit (FMU) and is for use in conjunction with their Historical Resource Management System. Multi-criteria evaluation was used to create the model. The modeling process involved the incorporation of data layers including Alberta Vegetation Inventory (AVI) layers from MDFP, a 25-m digital elevation model (DEM), topographic features, a cost raster of values indicating ease of travel, and terrain roughness. The FMU was stratified into two areas to ensure greater internal similarity. The model identified high-potential areas, in which archaeological sites can be expected, and no-potential areas, in which they would be expected to be absent. The next step should be to test the accuracy of the model. Following an initial testing period, changes may be made to increase precision. Increases in accuracy will result from verifications in the accuracy of the predictions, archaeological sites being found in areas identified in the model as having high potential and no sites found in areas of no potential. Increases in the accuracy of the model will also result with the incorporation of better resolution base mapping data.