Archaeological Predictive Modeling Using Machine Learning and Statistical Methods for Japan and China

Abstract

Archaeological predictive modeling (APM) is an essential method for quantitatively assessing the probability of archaeological sites present in a region. It is a necessary tool for archaeological research and cultural heritage management. In particular, the predictive modeling process could help us understand the relationship between past human civilizations and the natural environment; moreover, a better understanding of the mechanisms of the human–land relationship can provide new ideas for sustainable development. This study aims to investigate the impact of topographic and hydrological factors on archaeological sites in the Japanese archipelago and Shaanxi Province, China and proposes a hybrid integration approach for APM. This approach employed a conditional attention mechanism (AM) using deep learning and a frequency ratio (FR) model, in addition to a separate FR model and the widely-used machine learning MaxEnt method. The models’ outcomes were cross-checked using the four-fold cross-validation method, and the models’ performances were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Kvamme’s Gain. The results showed that in both study areas, the AM_FR model exhibited the most satisfactory performances.