Application of Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Predict Regional Scale Crop Yields in South Africa

Abstract

South Africa experiences a high interannual variability of rainfall which, in a region with abundant solar radiation, is the main determinant of year-to-year variations in crop yields. The coefficient of variation of annual rainfall ranges from less than 20% to about 40% across the country’s arable area (Schulze 1997). As a result maize, which is the country’s staple food, exhibits a coefficient of variation in annual yields ranging from less than 15% to over 60% (Schulze 2003). The variability in crop production has implications for food security in the country, particularly at household level amongst resource-poor farmers, whose livelihoods are heavily dependent on agriculture.