Abstract
One of the main objectives of the development of modern industry in Russia, along with an increase in the absolute volumes of electric power (EP) production, is to strengthen control over its more rational use. Saving EP and reducing the cost of its transmission along power distribution networks is of great importance for the country's energy sector. In terms of their physical nature, in terms of production, transmission and consumption, EP losses are no different from EP served to consumers. Therefore, the assessment of power losses in electrical networks is based on the same economic principles as the assessment of energy served to consumers. EP losses have a significant impact on the technical and economic parameters of the network, since the cost of losses is included in the estimated cost (reduced costs) and cost price (annual operating costs) of EP transmission. The cost component of losses in the cost of EP transmission has a large proportion. The article presents the results of research on the possibility of application of fuzzy regression analysis for problems of assessment and prediction of electric power losses in intrafactory networks. Initial information on the network is uncertain to some extent, which complicates application of traditional methods. The calculation is presented for conventional and fuzzy regression models, along with estimation of error of these models. The relevance of application of fuzzy regression analysis methods is determined by the difficulty of obtaining reliable information about the circuit and regime parameters of intrafactory networks, the probabilistic nature of change of the modes, as well as a whole complex of affecting factors, which are generally challenging for quantitative assessment. Advantages of application of fuzzy regression analysis consist in obtaining confidence intervals of required variables (value of electric power losses) for schemes of networks with uncertain initial information on their parameters, which is characteristic of intrafactory power supply systems, and enables to consider dynamics of their variation.
Highlights
Представлены результаты исследования возможности применения нечеткого регрессионного анализа для задач оценки и прогнозирования потерь электроэнергии в цеховых сетях
Saving electric power (EP) and reducing the cost of its transmission along power distribution networks is of great importance for the country's energy sector
2nd International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Applications and Manufacturing, ICIEAM 2016; South Ural State University Chelybinsk; Russian Federation; May 19–20
Summary
Для определения доверительных интервалов и, соответственно, построения нечетких регрессионных моделей воспользуемся данными в таблице 1. - 0 0 9,32 9,32 + + + 5,87 6,87 - 0,5 1,2 1,1 2,08 - - + 12,6 10,9 - 0 + 3,42 3,06 + + - 2,37 1,11 + -0,5 0 5,57 5,14 - 0 0 8,53 4,7 + 0 0 5,16 5,16 - + 0 9,89 9,12 ствуют значениям обобщенных параметров радиальной цеховой сети: х1 — средняя длина линий, отношение суммарной длины линий цеховой сети к количеству линий; х2 — величина, обратная количеству линий 1/n; х3 — эквивалентное удельное сопротивление линий сети rэ при 20°С; х4 — квадрат среднеквадратичного коэффициента загрузки линий сети; х5 — температура окружающей среды эквивалентное удельное сопротивление линий сети θ0 [6]. С помощью теории планирования эксперимента может быть получено математическое описание исследуемой области. Для упрощения записи условий эксперимента и обработки экспериментальных данных проводится преобразование факторов (1). Границы изменения факторов представлены в таблице 2
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