Application of array backprojection to tsunami prediction and early warning

Abstract

AbstractTeleseismic and static geodetic data have weak constraints on the offshore slip while tsunami data are limited by their availability, so predictions of tsunami waves in the near‐field remain challenging. In this study, we develop a near‐field tsunami prediction approach based on seismic array backprojections (BP). In this approach, the rupture area is first estimated by enclosing the BP radiators. Then slip models with uniform slip are constructed based on statistical scaling relations between rupture area and seismic moment to predict the near‐field tsunami waveforms. The method is applied to the 2011 Tohoku, 2014 Iquique, and 2015 Illapel tsunami events, and the model predictions are compared with tsunami recordings at 57 tidal gauges and nine DART stations. Results show that the average error of arrival time and amplitude nearshore is approximately −15 to +5 min and 0.5 m, respectively, which are sufficiently small for tsunami warning purposes.