Prediction of Tsunami Waves by Uniform Slip Models

Abstract

AbstractConventional tsunami warning systems for local and far‐field areas utilize uniform slip models to predict tsunami waves. The reasons are twofold. First, it is challenging to develop accurate finite‐fault slip models in a short time after an earthquake. Second, tsunami waves are long waves, and hence, the main feature may be predicted without knowing earthquake rupture details. Still, there have been few studies that quantitatively analyze the errors caused by uniform slip models. In this paper, we evaluate if and how such models may be applied for tsunami warnings. For the 2011 Tohoku, 2014 Iquique, and 2015 Illapel tsunamis, we first construct optimum uniform slip models with minimum tsunami waveform misfit and then compare the synthetic tsunami waves with finite‐fault model predictions. Predictions from both type of models match the tsunami data very well, indicating that the prediction errors caused by neglecting slip heterogeneity are insignificant. Further, we derive a common relation between the rupture area and earthquake magnitude. Additionally, the optimum rupture length and width ratio in terms of predicting tsunami waves is determined to be 1 for the three earthquakes. Lastly, we find that moving the uniform slip model to the center of global Centroid Moment Tensor solution produces reasonably small errors in the predicted waveforms. Applying the methodology to three more historic tsunamis shows that uniform slip models can well recover the Deep‐ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis system recordings, but the rupture center can differ from the global Centroid Moment Tensor solution. Our findings can potentially prompt more reliable tsunami warning strategies for future events.