Analyzing Daytime/Nighttime Pedestrian Crash Patterns in Michigan Using Unsupervised Machine Learning Techniques and their Potential as a Decision-Making Tool

Abstract

Background Data mining applications are becoming increasingly common across various fields. Numerous data mining methodologies have been utilized in pedestrian crash data analysis. However, association and correspondence analyses have yet to be extensively employed in pedestrian safety literature to support decision-making. Material and Methods Road lighting significantly affects pedestrian crashes, highlighting the importance of examining pedestrian crash patterns during daytime and nighttime. This study analyzed pedestrian fatal and injury crashes in Michigan from 2011 to 2021 under varying road lighting conditions. The study identified pedestrian crash patterns using unsupervised machine-learning techniques based on several multidimensional factors. The Association Rules Learning (ARL) technique was used to determine general associations of patterns leading to pedestrian crashes. At the same time, Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) helped understand crash attribute patterns in two notable scenarios: elderly pedestrian crashes during daytime lighting and high-speed midblock crashes during nighttime. These methods revealed key patterns associated with contributing factors to pedestrian crashes in different lighting conditions. Results In the analysis of cloud combinations involving elderly pedestrians during daylight, it was found that: 1) elderly pedestrians were significantly involved in severe injury crashes at two-lane midblock locations with a speed limit between 45 and 65 mph; 2) improper actions by elderly drivers were significantly associated with elderly pedestrians on wide roads (>5 lanes); and 3) the complex interaction between city streets with 3-5 lanes was significantly correlated with drivers 'failed to yield' actions. Additionally, in the analysis of cloud combinations involving nighttime pedestrian crashes at high-speed midblock locations, it was found that 1) a specific age group of alcohol- or drug-involved pedestrians (19-30) was significantly associated with young drivers and improper driver actions; 2) during the winter season, young pedestrians were significantly involved in moderate injury crashes at undivided midblock locations; and 3) elderly drivers and 'failed to yield' actions were highly correlated with 3-5 lane roadways. Discussion The research findings are expected to raise awareness of Michigan pedestrian crash patterns under daytime and nighttime lighting conditions. They will also recommend safety countermeasures for practitioners to enhance pedestrian safety in walkable cities. The proposed methodologies can uncover relationships that need to be well-documented in the existing literature on pedestrian safety. Additionally, these methods can identify valuable relationships without restricting variables to being either dependent or independent, and they can reveal relationships that might be challenging to detect otherwise. The results will also provide decision rules and visualizations that are easy to understand. Conclusion The results showed that the proposed techniques can analyze pedestrian crash data in a way that aligns with understanding pedestrian crash characteristics. Traffic safety administrators could benefit from this methodology as a decision-support tool.