Hierarchical ordered model for injury severity of pedestrian crashes in South Korea

Abstract

Introduction: The high percentage of fatalities in pedestrian-involved crashes is a critical social problem. The purpose of this study is to investigate factors influencing injury severity in pedestrian crashes by examining the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the regions where crashes occurred. Method: To understand the correlation between the unobserved characteristics of pedestrian crashes in a defined region, we apply a hierarchical ordered model, in which we set crash characteristics as lower-level variables and municipality characteristics as upper-level. Pedestrian crash data were collected and analyzed for a three-year period from 2011 to 2013. The estimation results show the statistically significant factors that increase injury severity of pedestrian crashes. Results: At the crash level, the factors associated with increased severity of pedestrian injury include intoxicated drivers, road-crossing pedestrians, elderly pedestrians, heavy vehicles, wide roads, darkness, and fog. At the municipality level, municipalities with low population density, lower level of financial independence, fewer doctors, and a higher percentage of elderly residents experience more severe pedestrian crashes. Municipalities ranked as having the top 10% pedestrian fatality rate (fatalities per 100,000 residents) have rates 7.4 times higher than municipalities with the lowest 10% rate of fatalities. Their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics also have significant differences. The proposed model accounts for a 7% unexplained variation in injury severity outcomes between the municipalities where crashes occurred. Conclusion: To enhance the safety of vulnerable pedestrians, considerable investments of time and effort in pedestrian safety facilities and zones should be made. More certain and severe punishments should be also given for the traffic violations that increase injury severity of pedestrian crashes. Furthermore, central and local governments should play a cooperative role to reduce pedestrian fatalities. Practical applications: Based on our study results, we suggest policy directions to enhance pedestrian safety.