Analysis on Passenger Flow Changes during Holidays—A Case Study of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway

Abstract

In China, the number of passengers taking the high-speed train will increase dramatically during the short-term holidays. However, only a few researchers have analysed the characteristics of high-speed railway passenger flow change during the holidays and all of them just focused on the total number change, lacking analysis on different OD types. Therefore, in order to provide specific advice for making and optimizing the holiday high-speed train line plan, this paper studied passenger flow change during holidays based on OD classification, taking Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (BSHR) as an example. Firstly, we classified OD pairs into different groups according to OD level and OD distance, while the OD level is defined by the station level which was obtained by Hierarchical Clustering Method. Secondly, by counting and calculating the increased number of passengers during each holiday for each OD group, we drew the conclusion that the increased passenger flow of BSHR in holidays is mainly from the 2nd level OD, 1st level OD and [0, 500)km OD. Due to this result, we suggest to increase the service frequency of 1st and 2nd level OD pairs in holidays. Also, we prefer to add short-distance trains and try to avoid adding too many long-distance trains.