Traffic assignment from cities along the Qingdao-Jinan Corridor to the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway and the Beijing-Shanghai second line

Abstract

The second line of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is planned to be completed in 2025. The opening of the second line of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway will help ease the tight transportation capacity of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway. This paper mainly studies the assignment of passenger flow to the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway and Beijing-Shanghai Second High-Speed Railway. The passenger flow is mainly generated in the cities along the Qingdao-Jinan Corridor and attracted to southern cities. Firstly, the volume of passengers in the cities along the Qingdao-Jinan Corridor is predicted according to the grey prediction method, and then the prediction results are applied to the gravity model to predict the OD passenger flow. After that, a high-speed railway network is established, and the k shortest path algorithm is used to find valid paths among each OD pair, taking travel time cost, fare and penalty cost into consideration of path impedance. The logit model is established to calculate the sharing rate of different paths, and the method of successive average is used to solve the passenger flow assignment model. Finally, this paper analyzes the impact of the fare rate level and travel time on the passenger flow assignment of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway second line. The results show that when the fare rate of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway second line is around 0.47, the passenger flow sharing on the high-speed rail network is basically stable.