Abstract
To reveal the main natural factors that influences groundwater depth of Dengkou county and predict the variation trend of groundwater depth, this thesis, based on the principal component analysis (PCA), conducts analysis on natural factors that are likely to affect the groundwater depth, and establishes a multiple linear regression model to show the quantitative relationship between the main natural factors and the groundwater depth. Then grey prediction method is adopted to predict possible change of main natural influence factors in the coming five years with employment of multivariate regression equation for further fitting. Results: Among the selected natural influencing factors, the most influential one is evaporation, followed by air temperature and sunshine hours, which are negatively correlated with groundwater depth, and the reason for this is related to the flood season of Yellow River. Relative humidity and precipitation have little influence on groundwater depth. According to the grey prediction results, the temperature, evaporation and sunshine duration will all be on the rise in the coming five years, and the average groundwater level will also increase slowly. The average depth of groundwater in summer is about 2.5m. Due to local dry climate and vigorous evaporation, secondary salinization of the land is likely to occur. Especially, the water level in the irrigation area of the Yellow River is generally high, deserving enhanced vigilance. This paper has reference significance for the ecological construction & planning of Dengkou County in the next five years.
Published Version
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