Analysis of Water Resource Carrying Capacity and Obstacle Factors Based on GRA-TOPSIS Evaluation Method in Manas River Basin

Abstract

The investigation of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) in oasis cities in Northwest China is useful for guiding the sustainable development of arid regions. To quantify the WRCC of Shihezi, an oasis city in the Manas River Basin (MRB), Northwest China, a total of 21 indicators from three subsystems were selected to construct an evaluation index system based on the theory of the water resource–socio-economic–ecological complex system. Our study utilized a combination of the CRITIC method and the entropy weight method to determine the synthesis weight, the GRA-TOPSIS approach to comprehensively evaluate the WRCC, and the obstacle degree model to identify its main obstacle factors. Our results showed that the WRCC of Shihezi showed an increasing trend from 2011 to 2020, with the compositive index increasing from 0.3454 to 0.5210. The carrying capacities of the ecological environment and socio-economic subsystems were generally on the rise, but the rate of change was relatively gentle from 2017 to 2020. The carrying capacity index of the water resource subsystem dropped significantly from year to year from 2016 to 2020. The irrigation coverage rate, the proportion of agricultural water, water consumption per 10,000 CNY of GDP, the modulus of water production, water resource development and its utilization ratio, the water supply modulus, and the proportion of ecological water were the seven most significant obstacles. Our findings could serve as scientific references for enhancing WRCC and promoting the sustainable development of oasis cities in arid regions.