Analysis of the state and dynamics of the public debt of Ukraine

Abstract

Introduction. It has been indicated that high level of debt burden in Ukraine in the conditions of insufficient budgetary funds and volatile economic and political situation exerts negative impact both upon the economy of the country and its every sector. This actualizes the research on the state and dynamics of the public debt within the context of achieving stabilization of economic processes, particularly Ukraine’s integration into global economic environment. The purpose of the paper is the analysis of the state and dynamics of the public debt of Ukraine in the context of solving the problems of its servicing. Results. It has been established that the major trend in Ukraine is a rapid increase in the total public debt which testifies to the instability and crisis events in the country’s economy. It has been defined that public and publicly guaranteed debt of Ukraine in Hryvnia equivalent is growing from year to year (increased by 106 times in 2018 as compared to 1996), while major periods of accelerated growth of public debt occurred during the periods of economic and financial crises (2008-2010 and 2014-2018). It has been determined that in 1999 and during 2014-2018 public and publicly guaranteed debt exceeded the critical limit of 60%, which asserts the presence of crisis events in the economy. It has been substantiated that there exists a close correlation between the public debt and change in currency exchange rate (correlation coefficient of 0,99 – very high bond strength on the Chaddock scale). It is revealed that the public debt-to-GDP ratio reaches maximum levels in the periods of economic crises and decreases in the periods of economic upturn. Conclusion. Hence, the issue of the debt-related security in Ukraine is topical and affects the economic situation. Prospects of further research in this area lie with solving the issues of managing public debt through changing the direction of the economic policy of the country as well as the scientific substantiation of managing public debt employing advanced economic instruments and progressive global practices.