Analysis of the likelihood of quantum computing proliferation

Abstract

Quantum computing technology has demonstrated the potential to outperform classical computing systems in a variety of different areas. Worldwide, research within the past decade has included the development of quantum computing systems for key national security-related areas such as encryption, machine learning, and simulation. While some pursue quantum computing's potential to unlock the secrets of physics and to facilitate the development of new chemicals to aid all of humanity, it also has demonstrable military uses. Nation states that have access to quantum computing capabilities will have attack and defensive capabilities that states without this capability lack. Moreover, superior quantum computing resources and greater capabilities of those resources can provide possessing states with significant cyberwar fighting benefits. This paper considers how the current situation mirrors the nuclear mutual assured destruction scenario of the cold war and the more recent cybersecurity-related assured deterrence scenarios. Based on this, it discusses how there may be a perceived necessity for quantum computing development that could lead to a proliferation scenario. Herein, the benefits of increased prevalence of quantum computing technology are discussed, as are its potential weaponized uses. The potential risks to nation states of falling behind in quantum computing development are considered, and the implications for state computing development planning, based on the prospective eventuation of a quantum proliferation scenario based on an assured destruction risk, are assessed.