Abstract
Along with its impressive economic growth China has experienced not only serious environmental pollution but also a very rapid increase in Green House Gas emissions and is now the largest emitter of CO2. Together with the power and steel sectors the transportation sector is the main contributor to CO2 emissions. In addition the transportation sector is also associated with air pollution and health damage. In order to address these challenges, at the COP15, the Chinese government set the target to decrease its CO2 emission per GDP by 40%-45% by 2020 compared with 2005 levels and increase non-fossil fuels rate at primary energy sector of 15%. The government has also put especial efforts to reduce air pollution through the Five Year Plans by introducing targets to reduce SO2, NOx, PM, among others. In order to determine the feasibility to reduce GHG emissions this research evaluates the potential of environmentally friendly motorized road vehicles (Hybrid Vehicle and Electric Vehicle). The research proposed 4 scenarios and designed social-economic model & environment model & automotive model based on Input-Out analysis. The results show that HV could be the most suitable option for promoting both GHG reduction and GDP increase with 1% GDP per GHG Emission (GpE) increase under 0.23 ton /Yuan carbon tax rate in China in the short term. The results of the study also show that these options should be followed by a transition to introduce EV in the long term.
Highlights
1.1 BackgroundAs a pillar industry in China, the vehicle manufacturing industry has developed rapidly in recent years
The results show that HV could be the most suitable option for promoting both GHG reduction and GDP increase with 1% GDP per GHG Emission (GpE) increase under 0.23 ton /Yuan carbon tax rate in China in the short term
The stronger GDP per Emission (GpE) is, the better GDP than other cases at the process from 3% to 4%. It means that carbon tax & HVEV-subsidy policy worked at the process from 3% to 4% to make GDP keep a good level than other cases—when they must sacrifice economy to fit environment targets
Summary
1.1 BackgroundAs a pillar industry in China, the vehicle manufacturing industry has developed rapidly in recent years. As expected the rapid increase in the number of vehicles has been accompanied by increase in GHG and air pollution emissions (Andrew et al, 2013, David et al, 2014). Vehicle amount per household was 0.234 (based on China statistical yearbook 2011, CAAM, 2013) in 2010 This value is still very low compared to developed countries like Japan that has 1.156 (base on Japan statistical yearbook 2011, JAMA 2014). It is expected that sales of private vehicles will reach 23–34 million and 29–42 million by 2050 under the low and high growth scenarios, respectively and the stock of private vehicles will gradually increase to 490–580 million by 2050, and will exceed the U.S level by 2022–2024 (EIA, 2010; H.Huo et al, 2012.) GHG and air pollution emissions from vehicles will likely continue increasing in the future
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