Analysis of the application of neural network technologies in predicting equipment failure in production

Abstract

The relevance. The article considers the solution to the problem of analyzing and predicting changes in the dynamics of measuring instrument readings and identifying patterns describing the course and possible periods of failures of technological process equipment by constructing a predictive time series model. A critically important infrastructure facility of a thermal power plant was selected as the studied one – a water pump for pumping process water into neutralizer tanks (the first stage of chemical water purification) located in the chemical workshop of the Krasnoyarsk CHP-3. The general methodology of model construction, requirements for input data arrays, preprocessing algorithms for the formation of samples used for training and testing models are described. To build a predictive model, the work used elements such as recurrent layers of long-term short- term memory LSTM, MinMaxScaler regularization, Dropout layer to reduce the effect of retraining, the ‘Adam’ optimizer using error back propagation methods and optimization using the steepest descent method using conjugate gradients, the learning error function is the average root of the error (Root Mean Squared Error, RMSE), as well as plot_predictions visualization. The algorithms are implemented in Python, in the Anaconda Jupyter Nootebook core. Based on the results of testing the training, the model showed sufficient performance of this method, since the time spent on creating the model and obtaining a forecast plays an important role when launching the model in real production conditions. In conclusion, recommendations are given to improve the accuracy of the forecast, the developed interface of the production system is presented and the directions of future research in this area are outlined.