Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and peak forecast of provincial carbon emissions under the dual carbon goal: Considering nine provinces in the Yellow River basin of China as an example

Abstract

At present, China is facing substantial pressure to reduce carbon emissions (CE). In the context of China's dual carbon goals, the accounting and peak prediction of CE in provinces along the Yellow River Basin (YRB) are crucial to China's carbon reduction strategy. In this study, the IPCC inventory method was used to calculate the CE of the provinces in the YRB, and the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of CE are described. The Tapio decoupling model was used to explore the decoupling relationship between CE and economic growth. By establishing the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology (STIRPAT)-ridge model, based on the impacts of CE drivers, the carbon peak of each province is predicted, and a differentiated carbon peak path is proposed. The results indicated that from 2005 to 2020, the total CE amount in the YRB continued to rise, but the growth rate continued to decline. Provinces experienced many changes involving strong decoupling, and the decoupling state varied. Factors such as the permanent resident population, economic level, technological level, urbanization level, industrial structure, and energy intensity drove CE changes, of which population was the main CE driving force. CE in the YRB will peak between 2030 and 2044, and the cumulative emissions will be in the range of 6913.96–16248.6 Mt CO2eq, while 2030 is suggested as the best year to peak. The research results provide a scientific basis for different regions to formulate differentiated carbon emission reduction plans.