A Study on the Impact of Industrial Restructuring on Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Scenario Simulation in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Based on a detailed analysis of the impact mechanism of industrial restructuring on carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin, this paper first calculated the carbon dioxide emission data of 57 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2019 and constructed indicators from two dimensions: the advancement and the rationalization of the industrial structure. Then, the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model was used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of industrial structure adjustments on carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin. Consequently, changing carbon dioxide emission trends in the Yellow River Basin under various scenarios were predicted. The research observed the following: (1) the eastern part of the Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration and the Energy Golden Triangle have higher carbon dioxide emissions; (2) the advancement of industrial structures in the Yellow River Basin has a better emission reduction effect than the rationalization of industrial structures; (3) increased foreign investment will lead to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin, and a “Pollution Refuge Effect” will emerge; (4) accelerated industrial transformations and upgrades, high-quality economic development, and a moderate population growth rate are consistent with future development trends.