Analysis of carbon emission drivers and multi-scenario projection of carbon peaks in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

The Yellow River Basin is a key ecological barrier and commercial zone in China, as well as an essential source of energy, chemicals, raw materials, and fundamental industrial foundation, the achievement of its carbon peaking is of great significance for China’s high-quality development. Based on this, we decomposed the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin using the LMDI method and predicted the carbon peaking in the Yellow River Basin under different scenarios using the STIRPAT model. The results show that (1) the energy intensity effect, economic activity effect and population effect play a positive role in promoting carbon emissions during 2005–2020. The largest effect on carbon emissions is the population size effect, with a contribution rate of 65.6%. (2) The STIRPAT model predicts that the peak of scenarios “M–L”, “M–M” and “M–H” will occur in 2030 at the earliest. The “M–H” scenario is the best model for controlling carbon emissions while economic and social development in the Yellow River Basin. The results of this paper can provide a theoretical basis for the development of a reasonable carbon peak attainment path in the Yellow River Basin and help policy makers to develop a corresponding high-quality development path.