Analysis of population damage by space debris upon collision with Earth based on the reverse geocoding method

Abstract

Approximately 900 satellites currently orbit Earth. When satellites complete their mission, they are either intentionally deorbited or placed in orbits that will cause them to crash into Earth within 25 years after mission completion based on the rules set by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee. When a satellite reenters Earth's atmosphere, small or low-density components from its structure will mostly be incinerated. However, if large components remain, they may cause damage when they crash into the ground. These risks can cause population damage. In this study, reverse geocoding was used to perform a probability analysis on the population casualties for four cases: a single piece of debris, a single piece of debris with the Monte Carlo method, a satellite, and a satellite with the Monte Carlo method. The reverse geocoding method was found to be more accurate at analyzing the casualty probability than Debris Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis (DRAMA) because it uses population data based on the longitude as well as the latitude.