Analysis of Methods for Forecasting the Development of Innovative Processes in the Regions

Abstract

AbstractThe study of the methodology for forecasting the development of innovative processes in the regional economy is the most discouraging topic, since the economic well-being of the participants in the innovation process and the regions, as well as the state as a whole, depends on the accuracy of forecasts of the future process of creating, introducing and disseminating innovations in economic systems. The article considers the prerequisites for the development of the methodology for forecasting innovative processes in the economy, which are based on the analysis of the current trends in the development of innovative processes in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the inconsistency of actual indicators with target (planned) ones. For the most part, forecasts form the basis for the scenario development of innovation in the regions and long-term innovative development programs of the region. The author of the article studied the features of forecasting the development of innovative processes in the regions, including the theoretical foundations of innovation and the implementation of the innovative process from the stage of generating a scientific idea to diffusion and transfer of innovations. An in-depth analysis of existing methods of forecasting socio-economic and innovative processes in the economy was carried out, on the basis of which the main advantages and disadvantages of methods for forecasting innovative processes were formulated. The need for further development of a structural mechanism for forecasting the development of innovative processes in the regions on the basis of the principles of unification of indicators for the development of innovative processes, standardization of the stages of implementation of innovative processes is justified. The reported study was funded by RFBR, project number 19-310-90037/19.KeywordsInnovationInnovative processesInnovative developmentForecasting methodsForecastingIntuitive-logical methodsStatistical methodsMathematical methodsInnovative development programsRegionJEL CodesC53O21O32