Analysis of Gas Supply & Demand in China and Suggestions for China’s Gas Industry Development

Abstract

The global natural gas markets are undergoing profound changes, with the supply and demand patterns in a historical transformation; the market supply and demand keep loose – both the gas traders and trade volume are increasing, the links between regional gas markets are enhanced, the gas pricing and trading mechanisms are diversified, the LNG trade share keeps growing, and the links between regional LNG markets are also strengthened. Influenced by the supply side reform and the accelerated urbanization, among other factors, gas consumption in China is increasing rapidly. However, the consumption of natural gas changes significantly from region to region, affected by the mismatch in gas production and consumption locations, as well as the gas import patterns. With the continuous energy restructuring in China, the gas consumption in different sectors is growing at very different paces. Analysis of the current situation, future trend and characteristics of China’s gas industry indicates that it is in the third stage of fast growth. Natural gas will play an even more important role in the future energy structure. With the continuous growth of gas consumption at home, the existing and expected gas deliverability is still faced with the risk of enlarging shortage in the mid-long term. In consideration of such circumstance, it is suggested that top-level design be strengthened on the national strategic level to seek rational, robust and scale development of the China’s gas industry. Internationally, diversified import channels should be sought to dilute supply risks, cooperation with the Asia-Pacific markets should be enhanced, and establishment of an international gas trading centre should be accelerated. Domestically, construction of a national gas interconnection system and a number of gas hubs should be speeded up, to make the gas industry an important component of the national energy network; the gas pricing mechanism should be established and completed as soon as possible to facilitate scientific allocation of profits and costs for gas production, storage and distribution, and to ultimately promote the sustainable and scale development of the whole chain of China’s gas industry.