Abstract
China is now beginning its 13th five-year guideline. As the top CO2 emitter, China has recently submitted the intended nationally determined contributions and made the commitment to start reducing its total carbon emissions in or before 2030. In this study, a bottom-up energy system model is built and applied to analyze the energy (mainly coal, oil, and gas) consumption and carbon emissions in China up to 2030. The results show that, the total energy consumption will reach a peak of 58.1 billion tonnes of standard coal and the CO2 emissions will get to 105.8 billion tonnes. Moreover, in the mitigation scenario, proportion of natural gas consumption will increase by 7 % in 2020 and 10 % in 2030, respectively. In the transportation sector, gasoline and diesel consumption will gradually decrease, while the consumption of natural gas in 2030 will increase by 2.7 times compared to the reference scenario. Moreover, with the promotion of electric cars, the transport electricity consumption will increase 3.1 times in 2030 compared to the reference scenario. In order to fulfill the emission peaking target, efforts should be made from both the final demand sectors and oil and gas production industries, to help adjust the energy structure and ensure the oil and gas supply in future.
Highlights
With the targets of the 12th five-year plan being successfully fulfilled, China is starting its 13th five-year plan
The results show that, the total energy consumption will reach a peak of 58.1 billion tonnes of standard coal and the CO2 emissions will get to 105.8 billion tonnes
Recently in 2015, China has submitted the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), and made the commitment that by 2030, the carbon dioxide emissions per GDP should decrease by 60 %–65 % compared to the level of 2005; China’s carbon dioxide emissions should reach a peak in or before 2030
Summary
With the targets of the 12th five-year plan being successfully fulfilled, China is starting its 13th five-year plan. In April 2014, the National Development and Reform Commission of China claimed that it is crucial to correctly handle the relationship between the government and market, scientific planning objectives should be set in the 13th five-year period. China is facing pressures from both economy development and carbon mitigation. China is experiencing a transition to the new normal economy. Parallel challenges from carbon mitigation and environmental protection are emerging and drawing the attention of China’s government. Recently in 2015, China has submitted the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), and made the commitment that by 2030, the carbon dioxide emissions per GDP should decrease by 60 %–65 % compared to the level of 2005; China’s carbon dioxide emissions should reach a peak in or before 2030. The non-fossil fuel consumption should achieve 20 % of the total primary energy consumption (State Council of China 2015)
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