ANALYSIS OF ENTREPRENEURIAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS

Abstract

The article analyzes the essence of entrepreneurial risk and methods of its assessment. During the economic, political and social crisis, economic, production or commercial activities of Ukrainian entrepreneurs are impossible without risks. Therefore, the issue of reliable assessment of entrepreneurial risk is relevant and vital for entrepreneurs, which can be solved only by the right choice of appropriate methods. The purpose of the article is to analyze the qualitative and quantitative methods of assessing entrepreneurial risk, to identify their advantages and disadvantages, and to choose the most optimal method. It is noted that the entrepreneurial risk can be interpreted as the probability of income loss in doing business. It is determined that the methods of entrepreneurial risk assessment can be devided into two groups, i.e. qualitative and quantitative. There were considered the following main qualitative metods of entrepreneurial risk assessment, including brainstorming, method of expert estimations, method of associations, method of analogy, and Delphi method. It is concluded that qualitative methods can be used only as an aid in combination with quantitative methods to stimulate creative activity, to generate new ideas and proposals, to use the experience and opinions of experts. It is noted that the problem of quantitative risk assessment is one of the main in business, especially for choosing investment options. It is determined that it is possible to assess the risk in absolute and relative terms by using of quantitative methods. There exist differencies between such terms as costs, losses, and damages. There were considered the following main quantitative metods of entrepreneurial risk assessment, including calculation and analytical method, statistical method, methods of game theory, decision tree method, sensitivity analysis (vulnerability), and simulation methods. It is concluded that the most universal methods for entrepreneurial risk assessment are simulation methods, as they have advantages over other methods, such as the method of analogies, sensitivity analysis (vulnerability), and decision tree method. Also they include some of them, such as the statistical method.