Analysis of China’s Food Supply and Demand Balance and Food Security

Abstract

China, as a developing nation with a population in excess of 1.3 billion, supports more than 20 % of the world’s population on less than 10 % of the world’s cultivated land, and if a problem arises for China’s food security it will become a profound issue for the global food market which cannot be ignored. In recent years China’s total production volume for food and production volume per unit area have been on an upward trend, but food supply and demand is still going through a somewhat tight situation. As the supply volume shortfall is large for some food crops, the possibility is high of it having a great impact on China’s food supply. From such a background, in this paper we analyzed the changes in China’s food production, consumption and trade and the causes impacting thereon, and also undertook examination of the forecasts for the food supply and demand situation. Building on that, we indicated the following three points as issues for China’s future food security, based on the analytical results. First, regarding the food self-sufficiency ratio, it is important to set the food self-sufficiency ratio at a realistic 80–95 % as a concrete policy objective, making appropriate adjustments after assessing the situation for the international food supply and demand balance. Second, via measures including the development and dissemination of agricultural technology, the putting in place of agricultural infrastructure, and the prevention of disease and insect damage, it is necessary to raise the total utilization efficiency rate of water and land resources and constantly improve the production volume per unit area. Third, at the same time as developing the food futures market in focused fashion, it is necessary to establish price changes via market mechanisms. Moreover, in addition to taking a series of countermeasures domestically, the implementing of a multifactorial import strategy for agricultural produce is also important.