An Operational Framework for Urban Vulnerability to Floods in the Guayas Estuary Region: The Duran Case Study

Mercy J Borbor-Cordova,Federica Valle,David Matamoros,Geremy Ger,Maria Del Pilar Cornejo-Rodriguez,Alessandro Pezzoli,Indira Nolivos,Angel A Valdiviezo-Ajila,Gonzalo Menoscal-Aldas,Mijail Arias-Hidalgo

doi:10.3390/su122410292

Abstract

Duran is a coastal city located in the Guayas Estuary region in which 24% of urban sectors suffers from the effects of chronic flooding. This study seeks to assess the causes of Duran’s vulnerability by considering exposure, population sensitivity and adaptive capacity to establish alternatives to reduce its vulnerability to flooding. An operational framework is proposed based on the vulnerability definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and applying a census-based Index of Vulnerability, a geographic information system and local knowledge of urban development. A Principal Component and equal weighting analysis were applied as well as a spatial clustering to explore the spatial vulnerability across the city. A total of 34% of the city area is mapped as having high and very high vulnerability, mostly occupied by informal settlements (e.g., 288 hectares). Underlying factors were poor quality housing, lack of city services and low adaptive capacity of the community. However, some government housing programs (e.g., El Recreo), with better housing and adaptive capacity were also highly vulnerable. Limited urban planning governance has led to the overloading of storm water and drainage infrastructure which cause chronic flooding. Understanding the underlying causes of vulnerability is critical in order develop integrated strategies that increase city resilience to climate change.

Highlights

Latin America’s major coastal cities are becoming more densely populated and growing at accelerated rates; this phenomenon is leading to unstructured periurban development which reduces the ability of cities to protect themselves from recurring and major flooding events [1,2,3,4,5]
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), extreme flooding events will increase in intensity and frequency, leading to impacts on the human health, community property, and economic productivity of cities [6]
The flood vulnerability index (FVI) composite was established as a function of indexes of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity at the urban sector level within the city of Duran (Figure 3)

Summary

Introduction

Latin America’s major coastal cities are becoming more densely populated and growing at accelerated rates; this phenomenon is leading to unstructured periurban development which reduces the ability of cities to protect themselves from recurring and major flooding events [1,2,3,4,5]. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), extreme flooding events will increase in intensity and frequency, leading to impacts on the human health, community property, and economic productivity of cities [6]. The current state of the art for studying urban flooding is shifting from flood protection and management to disaster risk reduction and city resilience [7,8]. These perspectives contribute to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 11 and 13 of sustainable cities and communities, and climate actions, respectively, yet require an interdisciplinary framework that includes an understanding of the social vulnerability, city economy, the ecological services of the urban ecosystems and city governance around climate hazards [9]

Results

Discussion

Conclusion