Abstract
In India, a reduction in wheat crop yield would lead to a widespread impact on food security. In particular, the most vulnerable people are severely exposed to food insecurity. This study estimates the climate change vulnerability of wheat crops with respect to heterogeneities in time, space, and weighting methods. The study uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework of vulnerability while using composite indices of 27 indicators to explain exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We used climate projections under current (1975–2005) conditions and two future (2021–2050) Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, to estimate exposure to climatic risks. Consistency across three weighting methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Equal Weights (EWs)) was evaluated. Results of the vulnerability profile suggest high vulnerability of the wheat crop in northern and central India. In particular, the districts Unnao, Sirsa, Hardoi, and Bathinda show high vulnerability and high consistency across current and future climate scenarios. In total, 84% of the districts show more than 75% consistency in the current climate, and 83% and 68% of the districts show more than 75% consistency for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenario for the three weighting methods, respectively. By using different weighting methods, it was possible to quantify “method uncertainty” in vulnerability assessment and enhance robustness in identifying most vulnerable regions. Finally, we emphasize the importance of communicating uncertainties, both in data and methods in vulnerability research, to effectively guide adaptation planning. The results of this study would serve as the basis for designing climate impacts adjusted adaptation measures for policy interventions.
Highlights
Wheat is one of the top-three staple food crops together with rice and maize; it occupies around 217 million hectares (Mha) with an annual production around 713 million tons (Mt) [1,2]
Apart from this, there is a clear need for more transient assessments, i.e., assessments of the impact of changing rather than a changed or static climate, where future climate conditions are considered for vulnerability assessment [39]. In light of this background, the present study focuses on the assessment of vulnerability of wheat crops under current and future climate change scenarios based on two Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5)
Vulnerability indices classified into vulnerability classes using equal intervals are presented in Figure 3, which shows vulnerability maps for the current climate (1975–2005) and future (2021–2050) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios
Summary
Wheat is one of the top-three staple food crops together with rice and maize; it occupies around 217 million hectares (Mha) with an annual production around 713 million tons (Mt) [1,2]. Wheat is the second most important cereal crop of many developing countries, in India, and plays a vital role in food and nutritional security of the country [3]. India is the second-largest producer of wheat with a production of around 100 Mt with a record average productivity of 3371 Kg/ha [4]. Until Indian’s independence in 1947, the production and productivity of wheat were quite low. The country had a capacity to produce approximately 6 Mt wheat during 1950–51, which was insufficient to meet the food demand of the population [5]. Despite the remarkable growth in wheat production from 6 to 100 Mt in India, wheat production is at risk due to climate extremes, reduced water availability, and increasing temperature [7]
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