An Improvement to Disruption Theory from a Macro Perspective: Evidence from the Personal and Mobile Computing Industries

In the Theory of Continuous Competitiveness (CC) developed in Chapter 1, we specified two sufficient conditions, one of which, PSPG Ratio, is found to integrate IMP2 [Industrial Master Plan 2] strategic thrusts 1 and 2. Customized hitech products (PS: Performance‐Specific products) are first demanded in small quantities in Country XYZ. In a few months, as demand increases, the PS products will be offered as PG (Performance‐ General) products of mass manufacture in Countries LMN, PQR, etc. The PSPG Ratio calibrates CC. To achieve CC, Malaysia has to decide whether, emulating the experience of developed countries, the share of manufacturing in GDP should be 30%, instead of the 38.4% projected for the year 2005. Similarly, Malaysia has to decide whether the Services Sector should be 48.4% of GDP as it is projected to be in the year 2005. Even Don Tapscott who swears by the inexorable convergence of what we have called 3C (computer, communication, content) industries, says that Services are not the source of income: “The planet, and even the Western World, still relies on agricultural and industrial production for the creation of wealth and the meeting of basic human needs. You can't eat or live on information.” If nearly half of Malaysian GDP is going to be not the means of production, but the means of consumption, it behooves us to find a viable means of production. We examine Information Technology (IT) as a candidate means of production. IT Industry is half Products and half Services. What should be the nature and magnitude of Malaysian IT products? If we keep the manufacturing share of GDP at the norm of 30% experienced by developed countries, that would release 8.4 percentage points of GDP from the current projection for the year 2005. Similarly, if we reduce the GDP share of Malaysian Services Sector to 40%, that would release another 8.4 percentage points. If we assign the former to IT Products, and the latter to IT Services, each should have a value of RM 36.2076 million in current prices in the year 2005. The RM 36.207 million in IT Products should generate RM 128.4 billion in IT exports in the year 2005, or each RM worth of IT products should generate RM 3.55 in exports. If domestic consumption is to be a third as much as the exports, each RM of IT products should generate RM 1.18 for domestic consumption. Each RM of IT should thus produce (3.55 + 1.18=) RM 4.73 for exports and domestic consumption. IT is also expected to be the engine of development. Based on the growth of GDP between 1995 and 2005 in the IMP2, the IT Sector should generate 50 sens in the rest of the economy for each RM of IT. Thus, each RM in IT Products should generate (4.73 + 0.50=( RM 5.23 (rounded to RM 5.00) in the year 2005. We are talking of new machine‐producing (cloning) IT machines worth 60% of 1995 Malaysian exports of semi‐conductors, computers/peripherals, and consumer electronics as the necessary stock of IT capital in the year 2005, each unit of which is to produce five times its value in output in the year, for a start.

We are currently in a period of time when managers are becoming computer literate and focusing their attention on acquiring personal computers and powerful terminals. It is hard to imagine that the next stage we will experience is the expectation of managers to be able to easily get high quality, well-defined, and timely data delivered to their terminals. (I choose to lump personal computers and terminals together.) The stage following this data-focused era will center on the analytical technologies needed by managers to gain insight and synthesize the masses of data available to them by this time. These analytical technologies will include artificial intelligence applications such as expert systems, as well as the more classic management science and statistical techniques. This paper addresses what technology is needed to support managers when the calls for data begin arriving on a large scale, a few short years away, or sooner. It purposefully takes a macro perspective rather than examining a specific technical issue in order to motivate thought on multiple technical issues important in managing and delivering data.

This paper will examine the concept of an innovation spiral process in relationship to the mobile communications sector of the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) industry which is the product of convergence of the telecommunications and the information technology (IT) industries. The fundamental theoretical framework for the paper is that innovative applications prescribed by users of an adopted technology can be a significant driver of further product evolution which then can fuel further market innovation. New products that are spectacularly’ successful’ are those that give rise to this spiral of product innovation and market innovation. The paper will first review the macro perspective of this theoretical framework by analysing the spectacular success of the short message service (SMS) in the GSM digital mobile communications over the last twenty years from the product concept. This conceptual framework is then considered at a micro level to review three consecutive research projects by the authors over the last ten years. The broad aim of these projects was to better understand potential user adoption of new mobile telecommunications products. The first research project in the mid 1990’s examined the barriers and enablers to the adoption of mobile phones by selected disadvantaged groups in society, in particular, people with disabilities. A modified focus group methodology based on interactive workshops was developed from this research project to gain insights into user innovation. This methodology was developed further in more recent research projects looking at the likely user take up of evolving multimedia capable mobile devices for innovative applications. The second study indicated that the market evolution of mobile internet like applications is likely to be very different from those developed for the fixed internet because of the different characteristics of the user groups. While the individual research projects have been published, this paper brings together the macro and micro perspectives of this innovation spiral to demonstrate the value of this theoretical framework for market forecasting for realising technology commercialisation. The research also has implications for the ‘form’ of new high technology products and how they are marketed which places less emphasis on technical features but more on matching with user needs.Keywordsinnovationtelecommunicationsmobile communicationsGSMSMSqualitative researchmultimediacommercialization

In line with the global advancement of information technology (IT), China’s personal computer (PC) industry has undergone a dramatic development in recent years. Worldwide, China ranked fourth in 2002 in total number of PCs installed, following the USA, Japan, and Germany. This marks significant progress, considering that China only ranked 16th in 1993. This leap can be attributed to China’s annual growth rate; at 42.9%, China is the frontrunner in the world. The quality of China’s PCs has also improved considerably. As a result, total sales by indigenous PC manufacturers caught up with those by international PC makers in 1997. Furthermore, Lenovo, China’s largest PC manufacturer, purchased IBM’s PC division in 2004, increasing the company’s world market share from only 2% (rank 9 in the world) to 7.6% (rank 3). The surge in China’s PC production suggests the following hypothetical reasons for the PC industry’s evolution from initial inertia along a continuously rising trajectory to its current state of success: (i) effective exploitation of technology spillover from imported PC components; (ii) the acceleration of market learning effects; and (iii) a shift toward high functionality development, enabling Chinese PC makers to catch up with international counterparts in the highly competitive market environment of the late 1990s. This chapter attempts to verify the aforementioned hypotheses through an empirical analysis of the factors that have shaped the development of China’s PC industry.

In this chapter, Jason Dedrick and Kenneth L. Kraemer analyze a transformation in the personal computer (PC) industry. In the traditional structure of the PC industry, PCs were marketed through a variety of channels from direct sales forces, to corporate resellers and electronic superstores. The connection between the PC manufacturer and the final consumer was weak (via advertising) or non-existent. In the mid-1990s, a major shift began in the US market toward direct sales of PCs, led by Dell Computer, which allowed PC makers better to match demand and supply. Dell Computers pioneered a new type of PC maker, which was basically as an assembler of parts made by contract manufacturers and assembled according to the consumers’ specifications. This approach cut out the distributor and retailer, putting the PC maker/brand-name merchandiser in the role of market maker. Direct sales accounted for over half of all PC sales by 2005, dominating the corporate market and augmented by the consumer acceptance of e-commerce. The direct sales model has made smaller inroads outside the USA. Currently, there are three major retail models in the US PC consumer market. The first is the traditional indirect model and the second is the PC maker as retailer. The third, which might be called the retailer as PC maker, includes the private label brands sold by some retailers, such as Wal-Mart and CompUSA, and local “white-box” makers that sell primarily to small businesses. In terms of impacts on suppliers, PC makers have adopted just-in-time practices and moved to vendor-owned inventory to reduce costs. As PC firms have focused on retailing and marketing, they have outsourced even new product development to a contingent of original design manufactures, mostly in Asia.

The amount of information is growing exponentially with ever-new technologies emerging and is believed to be always at the limit. In contrast, huge resources are obviously available, which are underused in the IT sector, similar as e.g. in the renewable energy sector. This is especially for grid with its fast turnover rates very astonishing considering the barriers for further development put forward by the inability to satisfy the need for such resources. The phenomenon is a typical example of the Inverse Tragedy of the Commons, i.e. resources are underexploited in contrast to the unsustainable and destructing overexploitation in the Classic Tragedy of the Commons. An analysis of IT and the grid sector which attempts to share resources for better usage efficiency, reveals two challenges, which lead to the heart of the paradox: i) From a macro perspective all grid infrastructures involve not only mere technical solutions but also dominantly all of the autopoietic social sub-systems ranging from religion to policy. ii) On the micro level the individual players and their psychology and risk behaviour are of major importance for acting within the macro autopoietic framework. Consequently, the challenges of grid implementation are similar to those of other pressing global issues as e.g. climate protection. This is well described by extending the Human Ecology triangle to a rectangle: invironment individual society-environment. By applying this extension of this classical field of interdisciplinary basic and applied research to the grid sector, i.e. by further extension to an e-Human Grid Ecology rational, the Grid Inverse Tragedy of the Commons can be understood and approached regarding the internalization challenge into e-Society and e-Life, from which then guidelines for the day-to-day management can be derived. This is of general importance for many complex fields and thus with similar paradoxes and challenges.

This research examines the evolution of information technology policy formation and policy-making in the People's Republic of China. The paper analyzes, from an institutional and a macro perspective, the basis and formation of the IT policy in China, the policy makers, and the effect of corresponding policy initiatives which contributed to the development and prosperities of China's telecommunication service sector. Embedded in the backdrop of P.R. China's political history and the world trend of liberalization, deregulation, privatization and the entry of the WTO deal in telecommunications community, this paper reveals the unique features of socialist China in transforming its IT industry from a monopolized government sector into managed domestic competition and ultimately opening up to the international investors.

<p indent="0mm">Software is the core component of IT industry and an important “infrastructure” that supports social operations in the digital economy era. Since the 21st century, the internet has evolved into a global ubiquitous computing environment and open platform. Its open, dynamic, and uncontrollable nature requires the corresponding changes in the basic form and characteristics of software, the conceptual framework, and the logical connotation, and thus leads to substantial challenges to software theory, methods, and technologies. In 2000, researchers from China proposed the term “internetware”, which indicates a new software paradigm for the internet computing. After more than <sc>20 years</sc> of efforts, a series of important research achievements have been made in aspects of the basic model, development methodology, runtime support, quality assessment and assurance of internetware, and resulted in systematic innovation results and produced a wide range of academic and industrial impacts. In internetware, the software model consists of a set of autonomous software entities distributed and/or decentralized over the internet and other extensions like internet of things and 4G/5G, together with a set of connectors for enabling collaborations among these entities in various ways. Internetware software entities are able to sense dynamic changes of the underlying environments, and continuously adapt to these changes by means of structural and behavioral maintenance and evolution. From the micro perspective, internetware software entities collaborate with each other on demand and on the fly. From the macro perspective, the entities can self-organize to form an application or community of interest and even decentralized autonomous organizations. As a result, the development and evolution of a software application with internetware can be viewed as continuous and iterative composition of various “disordered” resources into “ordered” software applications. Thus, software development with internetware is a process being bottom-up, inside-out, spiral, and to some extent, similar with the complex adaptive systems. For example, the internetware paradigm proposed the theory of software architecture modeling (called ABC methodology) covering the whole life-cycle, where the core artifacts and activities of every single stage are unified into the software architecture model and its iterative refinement and transformation. In this way, the internetware paradigm greatly improves the efficiency and quality of software development and evolution. In addition, the internetware paradigm expands the software architecture from the development phase to the runtime, by proposing the concept of runtime software architecture (RSA). The RSA has been widely applied for a large number of information “silo” systems to enable the functionality and data interoperability. This solution is a significantly disruptive technical invention, or namely the “black box” mode, based on the client-driven resource reflection mechanism to achieve automatic recovery of the system runtime architecture and automatic generation of data access interfaces. Compared to the traditional “white box” interoperability solution, the internetware paradigm eliminates the need of accessing source code, documentation, and original development team, and improves the interoperability efficiency between information silos, with more than 100X acceleration. This article reviews the research and practice of internetware from the perspective of software paradigm, following the internet computing environment and its extensions as a clue. It also discusses the future research outlook of internetware, especially for the ubiquitous computing environments and data centric technologies.

Among the larger Latin American nations, Mexico stands out for attempting to escape the middle-income trap through a development strategy focused on economic integration. By joining the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT, the predecessor to the World Trade Organization) in 1986, enacting the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, and signing numerous other trade agreements since then, the Mexican government has transformed what was once a relatively closed economy into one of the world’s most open and export-oriented ones. As a result of these trade policies together with a set of domestic reforms, Mexico has become one of the world’s leading exporters of manufactured goods in general and of relatively advanced product categories in particular. Manufactures now account for about 80 % of Mexican exports, and about three-quarters of these consist of machinery and equipment broadly defined—including large volumes of automotive and electronic products, and small but growing amounts of aerospace equipment, biotechnology products, and information technology. Mexican industries have become deeply integrated into global value (supply) chains, especially within North America and increasingly with East Asia and other world regions.

This article analyzes the development status, development trend and prospects of China’s Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) industry from a macro perspective. Our survey mainly includes: analyzing the necessity and urgency of China’s medical system reform from the various dilemmas faced by China’s medical system, and analyzing the development of the IoMT industry based on the current basic conditions of development of the Internet of Things (IoT), information technology and background of COVID-19 epidemic. Opportunities and the evolution of China’s IoMT policy were also analyzed. Moreover, from the five aspects of medical industry informatization, Internet hospitals, smart wearable devices, medical AI industry and medical industry digitization, the development status and trends of China’s IoMT industry are analyzed. Finally, it looks forward to the development prospects and directions of IoMT industry for health care in China.

With the rapid development of database, Internet of things and various information technologies, more and more data are generated from all walks of life. Combined with the basic knowledge of big data, systematic research on the analysis of industrial economy information will contribute to the application practice of industrial big data. As a prediction model in machine learning, decision tree is widely used in various fields because its output results are easy to understand and explain. In the future, making full use of the value of big data will promote revolutionary changes in the work of the production and marketing departments. And put forward a decision tree classification algorithm in big data environment, which is mainly used to analyze Industrial Economy information. In order to adapt to the development of the times, this paper studies, analyzes and combs the Information analysis situation in the era of big data from a macro perspective.

This investigation employs the Lotka–Volterra model to explore the market competitions between the mobile and desktop personal computer (PC) liquid crystal display (LCD) panels. The sales volumes of desktop and mobile PC LCD panels from each LCD company’s segment reporting income statements are summarized into the global sale volumes of the two specific products. Equilibrium analysis is conducted to analyze whether the quarterly sales volume of mobile and desktop PC panels reach the stable equilibrium by the Lyapunov function. This work examines the forecast accuracy of the Lotka–Volterra model. The parameter estimation results of the Lotka–Volterra model show the commensalism relationship between the mobile and the desktop PC LCD panels. The analyses indicate that when making a purchasing decision, a mobile PC is the first choice for consumers who care more about product innovation, quality, and mobility. After purchasing a mobile PC and becoming familiar with its operation, consumers may find that the computing ability and screen size of a mobile PC are too limited; therefore, consumers would purchase a desktop PC. The results of this study will provide the LCD industries insights concerning appropriate investment strategies to maintain competitive advantages. Equilibrium analysis results demonstrate that the quarterly sales volume of the mobile and desktop PC panels will reach stable equilibrium around 2020, maintaining the quarterly sale amount stabilized at 59,269 and 79,503 thousand pieces for desktop and mobile PC LCD panels, respectively. Finally, the analysis results show that Lotka–Volterra equations predict the global sales volumes of mobile PC and desktop PC panels accurately.

Analyzing the Role of ICT Sector to the National Economic Structural Changes by Decomposition Analysis: The Case of Indonesia and Japan

The role of intermediation on the international aid for the governance of technical training program

Recently, The Wall Street Journal proclaimed there is a War for Internet Talent among companies in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector. At the same time, talented employees often become entrepreneurial and establish their own startups. Thus, my research is motivated by these guiding questions: Which turnover patterns/trends can be observed in the ICT industry from a macro perspective (i.e., where does social and human capital flow)? To what extent can startup performance in this industry be explained by the social capital aggregated from the turnover history of its founders - that is, from the ties to former employers? Which employees are key resources in terms of their individual contributions to the aggregate social capital of their current employers? Do brokerage opportunities create turnover incentives for employees?As a first step to answering these questions, I aim to provide evidence that startup performance is not based exclusively on access to talent in the sense of individual human capital but is also determined by a social capital aspect resulting from their founder's career history. I apply social network analysis (SNA) combined with logistical regression on a large dataset of companies and people in the ICT sector to explore this topic.