An Evaluation of the Coupling Coordination Degree of an Urban Economy–Society–Environment System Based on a Multi-Scenario Analysis: The Case of Chengde City in China

Abstract

Sustainable urban development requires the coordinated development of economic, social, and environmental subsystems. Evaluating the coordination degree of different urban subsystems is of great significance to supporting sustainable urban development. This study explores the method of combining a scenario analysis with the coupling coordination degree model, proposing a new approach to measure the correlation between the level of urban sustainable development and the coupling coordination degree of urban subsystems. This method is used to analyze the correlation between the sustainable development level of 11 district-level and county-level administrative regions in Chengde City and the coupling coordination degree under different scenarios. The evaluation results show that, under different scenarios, the coupling coordination degree of the 11 administrative regions in Chengde City is at three levels: imminent imbalance, near coordination, and primary coordination. Compared with the business-as-usual scenario, the changes in the coupling coordination degree of all administrative regions in Chengde City under the economic-led scenario, social-led scenario, and environment-led scenario are in line with the level of sustainable development evaluation outcomes. The results confirm that there is a correlation between the level of urban sustainable development and the coupling coordination degree in different scenarios.