An Economic Analysis of Judicial Diversity Part I: Judicial Promotions

Abstract

This paper provides a quantitative study of the drivers of diversity among senior judicial appointments in England and Wales. The raw data for the 275 High Court judges serving between 1985 and 2005 display large differences in promotions to the Court of Appeal across background groups. Adjusting for censoring, 58% of the traditional group (a private education, or a state education followed by Oxbridge and a leading London set) are predicted to be promoted, compared to a figure of 19% for the non-traditional group (ex-Circuit judges or a state education not followed by Oxbridge and a leading London set). Estimating a simple structural model of promotion committee decision-making, we show that the majority of this difference can be explained by promotion-relevant characteristics. Both youth and a civil/public law specialism were positively associated with promotion and the non-traditional group was older at appointment and disproportionately specialised in family and crime. That said, even after controlling for experience and a range of judicial performance measures, membership of the traditional group was still associated with a two-fold increase in the odds of being chosen for promotion by a given committee.