An assessment of relative potential impacts to Cyprus’ shoreline due to oil spills in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Abstract

An oil spill occurrence is a concerning pervasive situation that can result in significant risk, depending on where it starts, the oil properties, and the environmental conditions. In the region of Cyprus, there is an intense traffic of shipping activities which intensifies the risk of an oil spill due to vessel density and prolongated permanence time. The purpose of this work is to obtain the relative potential impact in Cyprus by performing an assessment based on mathematical simulations to identify the critical places in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, aiming at increasing the readiness for minimising the impact of an oil spill in sensitive areas, with attention to the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere. This work simulated 384 scenarios using Mohid and Opendrift platforms with the same data input. The preliminary results presented significant impact in Cyprus’ western regions, mainly. However, after interpolating with history, sensitivity, distance, and two models, only three specific regions showed a potential relative impact. Though different platforms have been used, there were some equivalences in the predictions. Based on it, a new and more specific mathematical method was proposed to assess the potential relative impact of an oil spill in Cyprus, concluding that even with much more intense oil transport in other areas of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, the most significant relative risks are in fact, in the areas surrounding Cyprus. In particular, the region in the south, east and west of Cyprus. It must be emphasised that the south of Cyprus is an important region for the economy of the country.