Abstract
Climate change calls for coastal management to consider longer time scales. The main objective of this study is to develop an analytical tool for long-term dune management to help evaluate the risk associated with high water levels, high waves, and their joint probability, as well as the probability of dune erosion, overwash, and breaching to occur. The tool also aims to identify vulnerable dune sections. A case study was made in Ystad Sandskog beach located on the south coast of Sweden. Data covering 20 years were used to investigate probabilities and consequences resulting from extreme waves and water levels. The data were also manipulated in order to indicate future implications in the context of climate change. The analytical tool turns out to be easy to implement and to interpret. The case study shows that Ystad Sandskog beach is subject to dune erosion and that many houses and infrastructure located behind the dunes may be exposed to more frequent flooding in the future.
Highlights
Climate change, causing sea-level rise and changing wave conditions, calls for coastal management to consider longer time scales
The main objective of this study is to develop an analytical tool for long-term dune management to help evaluate the risk associated with high water levels, high waves, and their joint probability, as well as the probability of dune erosion, overwash, and breaching to occur
Low dune foot elevation and/or steep beach slope means that a section is more critically exposed to overtopping, erosion, and breaching; it should be considered a target section when carrying out beach and dune management
Summary
Climate change, causing sea-level rise and changing wave conditions, calls for coastal management to consider longer time scales. In order to draw conclusions about the socio-economic impacts, threats to ecosystems, and to face other challenges, tools to evaluate the natural flood and erosion protection provided by dunes are needed. The main objective of this study is to develop an analytical tool for long-term dune management to help evaluate the risk associated with high water levels, high waves, and their joint probability, as well as the probability of dune erosion, overwash, and breaching to occur. The area is characterized by dry and relatively narrow subaerial beaches and has low dunes running along the shore. It is a popular area for tourism and recreation, but the sandy beach has been subject to gradual erosion for more than 150 years (Larson and Hanson 1992). Ever since the 1950’s, measures have been taken to stabilize the beach, by means of, e.g., groins and beach nourishment
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