An Analysis for Stochastic Model of Worm Propagation

Abstract

Abstract Worm propagation on computer networks is a stochastic process. So it is very important for establishing stochastic models of worm propagation. This paper presents the stochastic model of worm propagation on the basis of epidemic models. At first an analysis is made on the worm propagation linear SEIR model and the form of state equation is written. Then it is changed into a Markov chain. The transition probability of every state, the expected time stayed on each state, and the average time of reaching a recovered state can be solved by the decomposition of the state space of a Markov chain. It is a great help in defending worm attacks.