Abstract
Due to the vulnerability of computer system, Internet worm is still greatly threatenning network security. It is found that the spread of worm regularly change because of the different space distributions of hosts and this phenomenon is defined as diurnal pattern. Based on diurnal pattern, two worm propagation models, namely simple diurnal forced model and complicated diurnal forced one, are constructed to describe and predict worm propagation. To verify the accuracy of them, Conficker dataset is adopted to obtain the practical curves of worm propagation. Through comparisons of numerical curves from models and practical curves, it is proved that simple model is good in describing the initial stage of worm propagation and complicated model can accurately predict the whole worm propagation.
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