Amity and enmity in regional security complexes: public and official perceptions in Latvia after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article examines Latvia’s external amity and enmity patterns after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While the patterns of amity and enmity and the resulting regional security complexes appear clear, this study adds a layer of depth to that understanding. It does so by exploring the views of Latvian society based on a two-round nationally representative poll, as well as the alignment of these views with the official positions. The societal and official amity patterns place Latvia within a transatlantic Western regional security complex and a pluralistic security community. The enmity patterns, however, point to an overlapping regional security complex centered around Russia, thus binding both complexes into a supercomplex. Rather than making generalizations on amity and enmity links among states, this study underscores the role of the official discourse, societal perceptions, and the internal plurality of views. In the case of Latvia, despite a considerable Russian-speaking population, the external amity and enmity patterns are largely aligned among Latvian and Russian speakers. However, amity and enmity intensity against some states differs in these groups.