Abstract
Abstract In recent years, Large Scale Land Acquisitions (LSLA), direct land tenure changes have been gaining momentum in developing countries. In this study, we evaluate the potential extent to which agricultural land deals in Africa are able to address the host countries’ food security needs, a commonly cited motivation for their establishment. First, we develop a framework to evaluate the priority food security needs of 38 African countries in 2000 based on indicators of food availability, accessibility, stability, and utilization. Second, we estimate whether the crops from land deals would be sold on export or local food markets based on the origin of investments (domestic, foreign or mixed), type of investors (eg. agribusiness, finance, or government) and the intended crops (eg. food, cash crop, or biofuel). This enables us to estimate how likely the investment is to improve in-country food security, versus serving other purposes (e.g., speculation, enclosure of natural resources). Third, we account for the characteristics of the locations where the deals happen (population density, land cover and distance to markets) in order to estimate the level of conflict and deforestation that they could exacerbate. We find that LSLA are only likely to address the identified food security needs of 7 countries. LSLA are also at risk of increasing land pressures and conflicts or deforestation on 83% of the acquired area, including in countries where they could meet food security needs. We also find that the more productive lands are most often allocated to flex crops, while food crops are produced on more marginal lands. We thus argue that even when their purpose is agricultural production, most LSLA are not likely to improve food security; rather, they often serve the financial interests of transnational companies and local elites with the support of host governments. Finally, we recommend agricultural investments to be elaborated in consultation with local communities and marginalized groups to sustainably support their socio-ecological systems.
Highlights
Humanity faces the major challenge of sustainably feeding the world while avoiding additional greenhouse gas emissions in a shrinking land area per capita
To the best of our knowledge, we present for the first time an assessment of the destination markets of land deals, as well as the socio-economic and environmental risks associated with Large Scale Land Acquisitions (LSLA) at a continental scale
We find that in the year 2000, over 65% of the 38 African countries where land deals occurred were limited with respect to at least one food security dimension and could benefit from investments (Fig. 1)
Summary
Humanity faces the major challenge of sustainably feeding the world while avoiding additional greenhouse gas emissions in a shrinking land area per capita. Despite an increase in global food production over the past two decades, nearly 690 million people (about 9% of the global population) remain undernourished globally, of which 250 million (36%) live in Africa (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO, 2020; Foley et al, 2011). The Millennium Development Goal’s (MDG) target of halving the number of undernourished people by 2015 has been met in 72 developing countries (FAO, IFAD, & WFP, 2015). Even though humans produce enough food for the current global population, geopolitics and global economics hinder its equal distribution Today 53 countries, mostly in Asia and Africa, still struggle to feed their populations and require international food aid due to high volatility of food prices, lack of access to food in the poorest regions, and political crises hindering economic development (FAO et al, 2015; FSIN, 2019)
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