Representing large-scale land acquisitions in land use change scenarios for the Lao PDR

Niels Debonne,Andreas Heinimann,Peter Verburg,Jasper Van Vliet

doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1316-8

Abstract

Agricultural large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is a process that is currently not captured by land change models. We present a novel land change modeling approach that includes processes governing LSLAs and simulates their interactions with other land systems. LSLAs differ from other land change processes in two ways: (1) their changes affect hundreds to thousands of contiguous hectares at a time, far surpassing other land change processes, e.g., smallholder agriculture, and (2) as policy makers value LSLA as desirable or undesirable, their agency significantly affects LSLA occurrence. To represent these characteristics in a land change model, we allocate LSLAs as multi-cell patches to represent them at scale while preserving detail in the representation of other dynamics. Moreover, LSLA land systems are characterized to respond to an explicit political demand for LSLA effects, in addition to a demand for various agricultural commodities. The model is applied to simulate land change in Laos until 2030, using three contrasting scenarios: (1) a target to quadruple the area of LSLA, (2) a moratorium for new LSLA, and (3) no target for LSLA. Scenarios yield drastically different land change trajectories despite having similar demands for agricultural commodities. A high level of LSLA impedes smallholders’ engagement with rubber or cash crops, while a moratorium on LSLA results in increased smallholder involvement in cash cropping and rubber production. This model goes beyond existing land change models by capturing the heterogeneity of scales of land change processes and the competition between different land users instigated by LSLA.

Highlights

Large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) have become a significant global land changing force since their proliferation following the 2008 food crisis (Deininger et al 2011; Messerli et al 2014)
The results from the three scenarios are presented in terms of the simulated land system changes and the processes leading to these changes
Our three scenarios show that, while the demand for rubber and cash crops can be provided by both smallholders and LSLAs, the encouragement or discouragement of LSLA results in very different spatial patterns of land system change

Summary

Introduction

Large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) have become a significant global land changing force since their proliferation following the 2008 food crisis (Deininger et al 2011; Messerli et al 2014). These transactions of relatively large tracts of land to agribusinesses, investment funds, and foreign governmental players have been welcomed as a long-overdue investment in the agricultural sector, initiating new value chains, introducing new agricultural technology, and creating employment (Arezki et al 2011). While neither plantation agriculture nor foreign large-scale agricultural investments are exceptional in history (Mazoyer and Roudart 2006; Baglioni and Gibbon 2013), the scale of the recent upsurge is trendbreaking (Byerlee 2014) and deserves the attention of land change scientists to study drivers, trends, and impacts of the phenomenon (Messerli et al 2013)

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Conclusion